PC Sales Plunge Predicted
PC sales are predicted to plunge by 20 percent during the fourth quarter of 2026, a period typically seeing peak demand. This significant decline is attributed to a persistent memory shortage affecting crucial components. The scarcity of both DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) and NAND flash memory is driving up prices across the industry.
Memory Shortage Fuels Price Hikes
Industry analyst firm IDC forecasts a sharp downturn in PC sales for the fourth quarter of 2026. This period, usually a peak for consumer purchases, faces a significant challenge. The core issue is a widespread shortage of memory components, including both DRAM and NAND flash memory, which powers SSDs (Solid State Drives).
AI Hyperscalers Drive Demand
Counterpoint Research reported that NAND memory revenues surged an incredible 3.5 times higher in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year. This dramatic increase stems from the immense demands placed on the industry by AI (Artificial Intelligence) hyperscalers. These large-scale AI operations are consuming vast amounts of memory, directly impacting component pricing for the broader market.
Market Outlook: Calm Before the Storm
The first quarter of 2026 offered a brief respite for the PC market before the anticipated storm, according to IDC. PC sales actually saw a slight 3 percent increase as consumers and commercial buyers secured final deals. While some discounts might still be available as the second quarter concludes, the market expects conditions to worsen significantly afterward.
Competitive Pressure and Rising Costs
IDC did not explicitly use the 'K-shape' metaphor, which describes rising prices for premium goods while lower-class users struggle. However, the firm identified the Apple MacBook Neo as a potential savior for the PC ecosystem. This device could exert pressure to lower some prices within the market. The Dell XPS 13, priced at $599 for students and $699 for general consumers, also falls into this category.
"The introduction of the MacBook Neo is putting real pressure on the entire PC ecosystem. We expect vendors to respond with a combination of new silicon, a more efficient OS from Microsoft, and aggressive promotional pricing." — Jitesh Ubrani, Research Manager for IDC’s Consumer Devices Trackers
Despite these competitive pressures, a general uptick in pricing is expected. IDC forecasts Average Selling Price (ASP) growth of 17 percent in 2026. Even with anticipated memory capacity expansion over the next two years, prices are unlikely to revert to 2025 levels. This suggests a sustained period of higher costs for PC hardware. TrendForce also tracks DRAM prices, indicating ongoing market shifts.
"The competitive pressure from the Neo is providing a partial offset to broader price increases, keeping some low-cost notebook options alive. But the overall trajectory for average selling prices (ASPs) is firmly upward. IDC forecasts ASP growth of 17 percent in 2026, and even as memory capacity expands over the next two years, pricing is unlikely to return to 2025 levels." — Jitesh Ubrani, Research Manager for IDC’s Consumer Devices Trackers
Hope from New Players
A potential glimmer of hope comes from YMTC, a relatively unknown Chinese NAND flash maker currently supplying 13 percent of the market's memory. YMTC is reportedly eyeing an IPO (Initial Public Offering) soon. This move could provide access to significant capital for investment in manufacturing capabilities.
"If YMTC secures extra capital through this IPO, it will be fully equipped to scale up operations. Under this scenario, we expect YMTC to surpass both Kioxia and Micron, widen its lead to emerge as the world’s No. 3 NAND player." — MS Hwang, Analyst, Counterpoint
Increased manufacturing capacity from YMTC could boost supply, potentially helping to stabilize or lower memory prices. However, any 'deals' found this holiday season might still reflect discounts on prices that are higher than they should be, driven by current market conditions.
Key Points
- PC sales are predicted to fall 20 percent in Q4 2026.
- NAND memory revenues increased 3.5 times in Q1 2026.
- Apple MacBook Neo and Dell XPS 13 exert some price pressure.
- IDC forecasts 17 percent Average Selling Price growth in 2026.
- YMTC, a Chinese NAND maker, supplies 13 percent of market memory.
The Bottom Line
Consumers planning PC purchases this holiday season should expect higher prices due to ongoing memory shortages. While some competitive models like the MacBook Neo offer minor relief, the overall cost trajectory remains upward. Any discounts found might still reflect elevated base prices, driven by significant demand from AI hyperscalers.